Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 206.640685 245.658140 292.182328 352.377324 429.125069 524.983033 6.558223e+02
2025-10-12 165.442891 214.147417 279.079154 374.301903 514.521929 720.507173 1.060488e+03
2025-10-19 139.672252 192.099121 267.920496 390.265561 592.502278 933.564386 1.603422e+03
2025-10-26 120.803932 174.015723 255.989262 398.819018 658.897998 1154.133760 2.299663e+03
2025-11-02 105.930572 158.313144 243.228944 400.924042 712.955774 1375.548025 3.167647e+03
2025-11-09 92.744373 142.663306 226.921966 391.700901 741.181377 1556.940601 4.104918e+03
2025-11-16 82.310731 129.763195 212.690354 382.385892 765.459299 1741.916866 5.255689e+03
2025-11-23 73.718200 118.694115 199.693063 372.191190 784.086366 1923.556547 6.635258e+03
2025-11-30 71.180768 117.855436 205.362213 402.128701 910.320630 2493.435455 1.061668e+04
2025-12-07 66.242438 111.919001 200.106688 406.589459 972.815834 2911.390910 1.488464e+04
2025-12-14 62.571340 107.864809 197.926692 417.671676 1059.134965 3491.575149 2.214799e+04
2025-12-21 58.257435 102.035330 191.145437 415.918103 1106.740661 3965.200098 3.074614e+04
2025-12-28 57.037549 102.345819 197.949099 451.958720 1299.810764 5359.782218 6.057618e+04
2026-01-04 55.285336 101.362148 201.781554 481.594511 1491.293650 7084.648276 1.241283e+05
2026-01-11 53.133067 99.263573 202.699244 503.461412 1669.500688 9110.997673 2.643272e+05
2026-01-18 50.599950 96.038698 200.410473 515.241308 1815.739522 11282.845610 5.746955e+05
2026-01-25 47.863218 92.058259 195.661509 518.143497 1926.242026 13491.321706 1.286364e+06
2026-02-01 44.669707 86.733452 186.790574 505.402116 1954.728917 15013.704444 2.563687e+06
2026-02-08 41.788135 81.847839 178.430589 492.561984 1977.859570 16629.107129 5.671551e+06
2026-02-15 39.135305 77.247590 170.246854 478.540852 1988.576898 18210.033581 1.403248e+07
2026-02-22 38.882440 78.186667 176.917576 519.806821 2354.157521 27049.364166 1.294196e+09
2026-03-01 37.308810 75.843999 174.316035 525.979172 2512.212996 33540.613059 NaN
2026-03-08 36.154369 74.399527 174.034665 541.339548 2751.304426 44246.618160 NaN